Running backs not talented enough to start right away, though, spend years getting stronger and waiting for their opportunity. It's too bad that by the time the most backs are starting age 27 , their skills are about to evaporate. We think of receivers as being volatile, but their performance chart is actually one of the most sane and stable:.
The eerily flat floor, I suspect, is partly due to the minimum qualifications of plus games started and 30 receptions. That said, besides a small jump from year one to year two, the peak and average AV for receivers is basically just as flat. From year two to year 10, the typical production of starting receivers basically doesn't change. There's an upward trend in the peak AVs, but that's it. Year 10 begins a steep, steady decline in peak AV and a rise in average AV.
This is the same effect we've seen before: Mediocre starters are stop playing, and the remaining elites are showing their age. From Year 14 on, the small sample size starts making things squirrely. Also, there's the Jerry Rice Effect to contend with: He was so very good for so very long, the last three data points are all him.
Again, a big jump from year one to year two, then shockingly similar production until top AV peaks at 32 and begins a steep decline. Average AVs get a big bump as the decent starters fall off, but then they decline as well. After age 38, it's all Jerry Rice. Remember the old saw about receivers taking a big jump in their third year?
It's the truth. Even though the receivers good enough to start right away start out at nearly great and climb from there, there's a massive jump in qualifiers from year one to year two, and then from year two to year three.
Just like receivers, tight ends have a big jump in high and average AV from year one to year two, and then it's mostly flat. Unlike receivers, though, the peak AV never gets any higher than year two's high-water mark, and there's a big decline in the average from year seven to year By the 10th year, there's an across-the-board dip.
Then, even though high AV stays flat as a board, average and low AV steadily rise to meet it. My theory here is that all tight ends begin to decline around year seven, but the two-way tight ends really start to go. At year 11, the only ones left are the elite pass-catchers, the ones who've never done much blocking.
Their production pushes a dramatic rise in average from year 10 to year This graph tells much the same story, though it's interesting to note that instead of a big jump from rookie season to second season, there's an across-the-board drop-off from age 22 to 23!
The only explanation is that rookie tight ends drafted to start at age 22 are exceptionally athletic pass-catchers, so less-skilled year-olds drag them down. Note the peak qualifier year, age 26, comes earlier than any group we've looked at and tails off resolutely. There's no doubt that tight end is one of the most physically demanding positions. The ruler-straight floor likely has to do with AV's limitations on measuring offensive linemen.
If you started plus games there's only so little you can be part of your team's production. Also, it's tempting to say the eerily flat average AV is due to the huge numbers of "offensive linemen" remember, five start per team , not consistency.
Yet, peak AV moves the way we expect it: a big jump in the second year, a steady climb to year seven, a drop-off to a plateau from year eight to year 12 and then another big drop-off and decline. Meanwhile, average AV climbs slowly, resolutely upward, peaking in year 11 and then following the big drop-off to year Let's check the experience distribution:. This is classic.
A huge jump in qualifying starters from year one to year two, a peak at year four and then an almost-spookily consistent year-over-year decrease in qualifiers until year As the year-by-year charts have been more useful and we've charted the more-volatile skill position careers , we'll stop looking for a "magic age" and focus on years of service. The physical part of the game is the principal factor when you take the brevity of NFL careers.
Another thing to consider is there is no NFL Jr. Just like there is no crying in baseball, there is no minor league, or G-League in football. Five years after stocking shelves in an Iowa supermarket Kurt Warner played the role of quarterback on a St. Every so often we stumble upon the four leaf clovers, like golden boy Tom Brady who seems to be getting younger as time. The year old is coming off of a Super Bowl MVP performance and shows no signs of relieving defensive coordinators the headache of preparing for his brilliance week in and week out.
While the Tampa Bay QB is a diamond in the rough, there are players who have lasted in the NFL until their mids, but it must be said that most of the players on the list are kickers, and most played over 50 years ago. Quarterback Vinny Testaverde played until he was 44, before retire in The average career for a quarterback is three years; the average for a wide receiver is a little over two years.
For an offensive lineman, the average career length is about 3. However, the NFL included a bunch of qualifiers in its calculations. I wanted to be the guy involved myself and understand the language.
As Buffalo Bills safety Robert Blanton , entering his fifth season armed with an MBA, said, "Everyone [playing] can tell you everything you need to know about football, but can they tell you something about real estate?
Probably not. And then someone wants you to invest half your money in something where you don't know what you're doing? During a real estate class last month, he helped by answering questions or providing deeper insight. That's not surprising given his background of wealth management, investment and entrepreneurship -- among other things -- and participation in executive business programs at Harvard and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania a decade ago.
It makes no sense. Moss also learned another reason he's glad he listened to agent Jason Rosenhaus, who suggested pursuing the MBA. That lesson occurred on a car ride to a graduation with the rest of Miami's students in the spring, when the MBA students also walked across the stage, nearly three months before their official graduation.
En route to the ceremony, Moss asked his daughter Saniya, who turned 12 in June, what she had learned from this experience -- and from her mom, who was in nursing school. Saniya Moss told her dad after a long pause: "That I want to learn more.
But this tugged at Moss' heart. There's another reality that sums up the desire. Former NFL defensive lineman Shaun Phillips said he knows that at some point he'll have to raise money for whatever venture he undertakes. He wants more on his resume than some past projects. The piece of paper with an MBA degree speaks to a journey few make. And that journey included daily van rides seated next to exhausted players, to early morning workouts or back to the hotel for late-night studying.
But that trip proved to be worth it for those that stuck around. I'm in the driver's seat; they know I'm serious," Phillips said. But now I'm a businessman. Skip to main content Skip to navigation. Choose Blog
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